Given the latest latitude-longitude fix for Maisu on 1/25, 4:39pm, latitude 18.17000, longitude -157.61361, you can derive the following data:

Since departure at Kealakekua Bay on 1/23, 5:30 p.m, the canoes went south, then west; on 1/25, 4:39 pm they were 244 km or 131.76 nautical miles from their starting point, bearing 2 27 degrees, or Manu Kona (SW) of Kealakekua.

Distance and bearing, since heading westward on Jan. 24, 19.08129, -156.08240 at 11 a.m.: 190.5 km, or 102 nautical miles, bearing 238 degrees Noio Kona, or SW by W. (They are angling south, for 16.75 degrees North Latitude to sail in stronger winds, due west toward Johnson Atoll). Average Speed: 4.25 knots.)

On 1/25, 4:39pm, the canoes were 1273 km, or 687 nautical miles from Johnston Atoll, and 3576 km, or 1931 nautical miles from Majuro.

Assuming the canoes maintain their current speed at 4.25 knots, the canoes would reach Johnston Atoll in 161 hours, or 6.7 days; they would reach Majuro in 454 hours, or 19 days.

The time calculations are based on the average canoe speed, which is determined by the average wind speed. Monitoring the WIND/WAVE ANALYSIS FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC daily at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/seastate_00.gif, you can tell if the wind speeds are holding steady or changing (currently holding steady around 15-20 knots, gradually stronger to the south). Lighter winds mean slower sailing; stronger winds mean faster sailing. You can attempt to predict whether the wind speeds will be changing by learning how to read the SURFACE WEATHER ANALYSIS FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/pmsl_00.gif. To get the best average canoe speed for the short term, use the two most recent fixes.

See “Working with Latitude-Longitude Fixes 1” below for instructions using the website: http://www.movable-type.co.uk/scripts/LatLong.html to derive data from fixes.

Latitude-Longitude

Starting Point of the Voyage: Kealakekua Bay on 1/23, 5:30 p.m,: latitude 19.67; longitude -155.92

Johnston Atoll: latitude 16.75; longitude -169.52

Majuro: latitude 07.08; longitude 171.38

For Latitude-Longitude of Pacific Islands, see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tides07/tab2wc3.html

For Latitude-Longitude in Japan, see http://www.mapsofworld.com/lat_long/japan-lat-long.html